COMPASS – Compound extremes attribution of climate change: towards an operational service
Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Programme
The COMPASS project aims to develop a harmonised, yet flexible, methodological framework for climate and impact attribution of various hazard types, which is a crucial initial step towards the deployment of a European operational service. COMPASS will innovate by going from the attribution of single-driver extremes to the attribution of more complex extremes (including compounding, sequential and cascading hazard events) and enabling a shift from a hazard-centred analysis to an impact-centred perspective. Main novelties include event-based hazard and impact modelling using a multi-scale approach, the use of weather type analysis for better understanding the physical drivers that give rise compound extremes, and the use of contextualized storylines to communicate attribution results. Our framework will be validated and applied to a set of use cases that cover historical extremes for various hazard types and impact context, as well as extreme events happening during the project.
COMPASS will create a modular and scalable framework for on-the fly analysis, and thus transferable to other extremes and regions, and will lay the scientific foundation for the operational deployment as part of the Copernicus Climate Change Services. To promote the uptake of the project’s results, our data, methods and tools will be made openly available, while a web-based demonstrator will showcase the outputs of the use cases, and clear guidelines for climate attribution will be developed.
SEVEN is a partner of the project.